Rebuild U.S. Leadership in Latin America

By Saul R. Revatta

There is no doubt that since the end of World War II, the United States has been the dominant force shaping and leading the global economic order. The U.S. has spearheaded a Western-led rules-based capitalistic system that has fueled global economic growth but has also disproportionately benefited the U.S. and its western European allies. However, as of late, the U.S. has forgotten the tremendous economic gains it has reaped as the primary architect and enforcer of this system. Nowhere is this abdication of leadership more evident than in Latin America (LatAm), where the U.S. is ceding influence to China, which has been funding major infrastructure projects across the region. The incoming Trump administration must know that it is in the U.S.’s best interest to re-engage with LatAm and regain influence.

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What a Trump Victory Would Mean for Latin America

Image: Project Syndicate

By Jorge Heine

Already struggling to get out of its deepest economic downturn in 120 years, Latin America now must brace for the possibility of another Donald Trump presidency. Judging by the Republican candidate’s campaign promises and longstanding positions on trade and immigration policy, the implications would be dire.

After the euphoric Democratic National Convention in Chicago, there is little doubt that Kamala Harris’s candidacy has changed the dynamics of the 2024 US presidential race. Democrats now have a fighting chance, which is more than they could have said a few months ago. However, with polls still showing an extremely close contest in the seven swing states that ultimately matter, the rest of the world must brace for what Donald Trump’s return to the White House would entail.

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Mexico’s Democracy is at Stake in 2024

Image: Project Syndicate

By Jorge G. Castañeda

Over the course of two centuries of independence, Mexico has elected its leaders democratically on only four occasions. Whether the presidential election in June will be fair and free is questionable, given that the playing field is heavily tilted in favor of the ruling party’s candidate.

Many countries, from the United States and Uruguay to India and Indonesia, will hold elections in 2024. Although pundits, politicians, and political scientists tend to portray each one as “historic” and “momentous,” Mexico’s June 2 presidential election may be one of the few to warrant such superlatives, if only because the country has limited experience with truly democratic votes.

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Can Latin America Escape Its Second Lost Decade?

Image: Project Syndicate

By José Antonio Ocampo

Latin America’s economies continued to be the worst-performing in the developing world in 2023. To boost economic growth, the region’s political leaders must increase their investments in science and technology, foster regional integration, and reaffirm their commitment to democratic governance.

Latin America has come to the end of its second lost decade of development. Average annual growth hovered just below 0.9% for the 2014-23 period – worse than the 1.3% rate in the 1980s. GDP per capita, however, is projected to be slightly higher in 2023 than in 2013, owing to slower population growth. By contrast, it was not until 1994 that the region’s GDP per capita returned to its 1980 level. Still, Latin America has a severe growth problem.

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And the Winner is … The Unpredictability of Electability

Image: The Conversationalist

By Linda E. Moran, Ph.D.

Alex Seitz-Wald (2019) maintains that the most unknowable factor of presidential elections is electability and, more specifically, perceptions of electability. Their role in the surprising outcomes of two Chilean elections — Michelle Bachelet’s in 2005 and Gabriel Boric’s in 2021 — provides the scaffolding for analysis. The combination of failed strategies on the part of the predicted winners and unprecedented breakthroughs on the part of the actual winners created a conundrum for those with expertise on the topic of Chilean sociopolitical behavior. Why were predictions so wide of the mark? In search of an explanation, this essay shifts the focus from standard conversations about anomalies and contradictions to premises at the core of notions of electability. It suggests that the unexpected outcomes of the two elections under scrutiny can be attributed to flaws in five of the premises commonly used to assess electability.

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Feminist Economics for All

Image: Project Syndicate

By Mercedes D’Alessandro

It may seem obvious to a layperson that failing to support an economy’s labor force must come at a cost. Yet conventional economic models render nearly invisible – or simply wave aside – a dimension of inequality that pervades economic policymaking and macroeconomic outcomes.

Not everyone has lost out from the “polycrisis” that we are now enduring. Perversely, both extreme wealth and extreme poverty have increased simultaneously for the first time in 25 years. Worse, a host of other problems also now demand our immediate attention – from high and rising debt and increasing job precarity to inflation, climate change, and food insecurity.

To reconfigure our economies for growth and sustainable development, we must go back to the intellectual drawing board to identify elements of economic theory and practice that have been overlooked. For example, even though the pandemic exposed deep flaws in how we think about care, many governments and businesses continue to neglect this dimension of the economy.

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The Food-System Revolution is Coming

Image: Project Syndicate

By Robin Willoughby and Nico Muzi

Demographic, environmental, and consumer factors have brought the global agriculture sector to a crossroads. To avoid political hazards, decision-makers in government, industry, and civil society will need to heed the lessons from major transitions in other industries and start preparing.

Disruption is coming to the agriculture sector. Around the world, livestock farmers are leaving the land, policymakers are targeting the harmful environmental and social effects of industrial meat production, and consumers are shifting away from meat to embrace healthier, more sustainable alternatives. With the sector approaching a crossroads, decision-makers in government, industry, and civil society will need to heed the lessons from major transitions in other industries and start preparing.

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